ARLINGTON COUNTY, Virginia: As global air travel continues its recovery from the pandemic, Boeing has released a tempered 20-year outlook for commercial jet demand, reflecting cautious optimism amid production challenges and economic uncertainty.

The U.S. planemaker projects the need for 43,600 new aircraft through 2044—nearly the same as its forecast last year of 43,975 jets by 2043—but has trimmed expectations for key growth indicators, including passenger traffic and economic expansion.

Boeing now expects passenger traffic to grow at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, down from last year's 4.7 percent. Its global GDP growth forecast has also been cut from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent, while cargo traffic growth has been revised from 4.1 percent to 3.7 percent, and overall fleet growth from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent.

Still, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said that long-term fundamentals remain solid. "We need to point back to the perspective that the last 20, 40, and 60 years have given us in terms of the value of air cargo," Hulst said. "It's roughly a 4 percent growth market through all this time."

The updated forecast was released over the weekend ahead of the Paris Airshow, where Boeing and European rival Airbus typically unveil order wins and future projections. Last week, Airbus revised its 20-year forecast by two percent, predicting demand for 43,420 commercial aircraft.

Of Boeing's projected deliveries, nearly 33,300 are expected to be single-aisle aircraft, such as the 737 MAX, which competes directly with Airbus's A320neo family. Another 7,800 will be widebody jets, alongside 955 factory-built freighters and 1,545 regional jets.

Boeing's forecast shows that around 51 percent of future demand will come from air travel growth rather than replacing older planes. Much of this growth is expected from China and South and Southeast Asia, including India. Meanwhile, North America and Eurasia are expected to lead the replacement of fleets.

Air travel demand is set to grow more than 40 percent by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, aircraft supply remains constrained. Boeing and Airbus are both struggling to ramp up production due to supply chain issues and safety concerns.

Boeing, in particular, is grappling with the fallout from recent incidents. A 2024 mid-air panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX prompted the U.S. FAA to cap 737 production at 38 jets a month. More recently, a crash involving an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner led CEO Kelly Ortberg to cancel his appearance at the Paris Airshow to assist with the investigation.

Boeing also said its backlog in China—which accounts for about 10 percent of its total orders—is likely to see movement again, with aircraft deliveries expected to resume this month after a long pause due to trade tensions.